Daniel Pfund, Senior Financial Analyst
The European consumer is positive about the current and future economic situation. Overall, he thinks that the standard of living will improve in the next twelve months, as will his household’s financial situation. Logically, this will allow the consumer to continue to make significant expenditures and thus support consumption, which represents the majority of European GDP.
On the other hand, investors expect a significant weakening of the economy. The German survey index, the ZEW, is at its lowest level since 2011. Historically, when this index diverged so sharply from consumer sentiment, a recession followed in the next 12 months. So we will soon know if the statistics are confirmed.