8th May 2019
Hugues Chevalier, Economist
After some quarters of sharp deceleration, the economic growth slowdown in China seems to have stopped. Indeed, the latest PMIs show an acceleration of the industrial production and a stabilisation of the domestic demand. Further to this, external trade (exports and imports) has rebounded last March. The activity acceleration seems to be the consequences of both fiscal and monetary policies. As such, the central bank has lowered its key rates so that the 3 months rates (Shibor) have lost around 200 basis points during these last weeks. On top of this, the government has lowered the VAT rate in order to support household’s consumption. Therefore, the GDP growth rate should reach 6.4% during the first half of 2019 and, most probably, during the whole of this year.