Elections could trouble the stock markets

27th February 2017

Daniel Pfund, Senior Financial Analyst, Fund Manager

In 2017, we will have three major elections in Europe. Firstly, the 15th of March the Netherlands will hold general elections to elect all 150 members of the House of Representatives. Current polls put the Party for Freedom (PVV), a right-wing poupulist party led by Geert Wilders, in the lead with 25 seats (up from 12 currently). However, all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the PVV, which would make it virtually impossible for Geert Wilders to become prime minister.

The second major elections will be for the French president, which is held in two rounds. A first vote will take place on 23rd of April to select the 2 finalists. A final vote will take place on the 7th of May. It is widely expected to see Marine Le Pen, a leader of right-wing populist party Front National, in the second round. Because of the 2 round elections, it is more difficult to predict the outcome, but it seems unlikely Mrs Le Pen would be able to win the final election. Nevertheless, the markets are very nervous about such an issue, as it would clearly mean the end of the Euro as Mrs Le Pen wants France to abandon the common currency, and propose a French referendum on EU membership.

The final election will take place in Germany on the 24th of September to elect the members of the Bundestag, the federal parliament. Currently, Angela Merkel’s party (CDU/CSU, a center-right party) is in the lead, followed by Martin Schulz (SPD, a center-left party), and the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany third.