Hugues Chevalier, Economist
The latest PMIs publication shows a grim picture for the world economic growth. Indeed, we do expect an economic downturn for the next months. This has been confirmed by the decrease of the crude price (Brent) these last days and by the decline of the stock exchanges indices around the globe. Yields (10 years) have been under pressure as well, reflecting the slowdown of the economic growth. In the emerging countries, all indicators have capsized and currencies have been devaluating against the dollar. This global downturn has been exacerbated by the trade war initiated by the US. Worse, according to the econometric model of Morgan Stanley, if the trade still escalates, a recession at the end of the year is not excluded.