22nd May 2017
Hugues Chevalier, Economist
The latest indicators confirm that global growth is in an accelerating phase. The positive surprise these last months is the recovery of exports. Financial markets had anticipated this evolution and have been rising since the beginning of the year.
In the OECD countries the household consumption remains the strong engine, thanks to the gradual improvement of the labour market. In addition investments by companies start to accelerate, in line with increasing capacity utilisation. After several years of decrease and stagnation, exportations are also rising. Inflation remains week, which allows monetary policies to remain accommodating. All elements are therefore reunited for a progressive acceleration of growth.
For emerging markets the rebound of raw material prices has allowed several countries to leave recession. In addition, the dynamism of international trade supports also exports of industrial goods, especially in Asia and Central Europe.
In total, economic growth should accelerate this year to 3.4%, and 3.6% in 2018.
Chart: MSCI Indices (100 = 15th May 2016)