15th November 2016
-News, IAM, Performance
Hugues Chevalier, Economist
The last few weeks have been marked by a strong increase in political risks (Brexit, US elections, …) which are expected to have a negative impact on the world economic growth in the next months.
Yet in the last weeks several indicators turned positive. First the petrol price rose to about 50 US Dollars per barrel, which should give a boost to oil producing countries. Then the US industrial recession, especially in the sector of oil extraction, is now behind us. And finally, the third factor is the acceleration of the activity in the emerging countries, in particular in China and the end of the recession in Brazil and Russia.
These positive factors are now however facing increasing political risks and more restrictive future commercial policies. We had forecasted a world economic growth of 3.2% for 2017, a slight rise compared to this year. It is not sure that this growth rate will be achieved following the US elections and Brexit.