The OECD countries seem to reach the top of the cycle

30th April 2018
-News, IAM

Huges Chevalier, Economist

After a new acceleration of the GDP in the last quarter 2017, to 4% per year, the worldwide economic growth remained solid during the first quarter 2018. The worldwide economy is currently experiencing its longest period of expansion since 20 years. For the moment, except for a few countries, no inflationist tensions are observed. During the last months, the advanced indicators remained well oriented. However, in the western countries, the top of the cycle seems to be reached. The advanced indicator of the OECD has turned downwards since two quarters. Furthermore less than 50% of the economies were accelerating during the 4th quarter 2017, compared to 66% during the third quarter. In total, worldwide growth is expected to reach 3.9% this year, compared to 3.7% in 2017 and it might slow down 2019, due to planed monetary tightening. In detail, the GDP of the OECD countries is expected to reach 2.5% this year, 5% in the emerging economies.